# Hindsight Bias

*Behavioral Finance — Finicade finance glossary*

Hindsight bias is the feeling that an outcome was predictable once you know it happened. It corrupts learning in two directions: it makes past crashes look obvious, which breeds overconfidence about spotting the next one, and it makes good decisions with bad outcomes look foolish. A contemporaneous written record is the only reliable defence, which is the real argument for a decision journal.

**Also known as:** knew it all along effect, creeping determinism

**Related terms:** [Narrative Fallacy](https://finicade.com/glossary/narrative-fallacy), [Overconfidence](https://finicade.com/glossary/overconfidence), [Trading Journal](https://finicade.com/glossary/trading-journal), [Confirmation Bias](https://finicade.com/glossary/confirmation-bias), [Backtesting](https://finicade.com/glossary/backtesting)

**Taught in:** Mind Over Markets — Hindsight & Confirmation

Source: https://finicade.com/glossary/hindsight-bias