Conditional Probability
Also called: probability given, conditional distribution
Conditional probability is the chance of an event given that another has occurred, written P(A|B). Almost every real forecast is conditional — the odds of default given a recession, of a rally given an earnings beat. The universal error is treating P(A|B) as if it equalled P(B|A): the probability that a fraudster fails an audit is nothing like the probability that someone failing an audit is a fraudster.
Where this is taught
Definitions are the trailer. These free levels turn Conditional Probability into something you play — one bite-size lesson, with worked examples, a quiz and XP.