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Level 10
· ◆◆◆ · ~12 min
Probability Weighting & the Fourfold Pattern
Probability Weighting & the Fourfold Pattern
"We don't treat a 1% chance as one-hundredth of a 100% chance. We overweight the rare and crave certainty — and that quietly explains lotteries, insurance, and why we sell winners but gamble on losers."
decision weights vs probabilitiesthe possibility effectthe certainty effectthe fourfold patternlottery stocks & overpriced insurance
A short lesson, then a quiz. ❤️×3 — a wrong answer costs a heart; finish with at least one left and the level is yours. Lose all three and you'll have to try again. Replay any time — XP and cleared levels are never lost.