The President

You have just won an election and inherited a deficit. For the next ten years every decision you take has two halves — what the state does, and who pays for it — and it is the second half that decides whether you leave the country better than you found it. Borrow for a road that raises output for forty years and the debt ratio falls. Borrow for a giveaway that is spent in a quarter and it does not, though nothing on the screen tells you which is which at the moment you choose. On the wall is the bond market: the rate it charges you is not yours to set, it is computed from your debt and your credibility, and it comes out of next year's budget as interest. Lose that confidence and the interest bill starts eating the programmes, which forces more borrowing, which raises the rate. There is also an election, and it arrives at the worst possible time, and buying it is the most expensive thing you can do.

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ApprovalPublic support. Zero and you're out at the next test of confidence — and everything you were planning belongs to somebody else.

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Debt / GDPGovernment debt as a share of the economy. Not a sin in itself — the question is always what it bought and whether the market will keep rolling it. Past 130% it won't.

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GrowthThe economy you're actually managing, and the denominator of the debt ratio. The cheapest way to cut debt has always been to grow out of it.

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CredibilityWhether the market and the institutions believe your numbers. It is worth real money: most of your borrowing cost is the market's opinion of you.

Every policy has two halves: what you do, and who pays. The bond market grades the second one.