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📜 SIDE QUEST · DEEP DIVE · ◆◆◆◆ · ~11 min

The Kupiec Test, Derived

Deep dive: the statistics of catching a lying model.

"From coin flips to likelihood ratios to the uncomfortable truth about power."

binomial exceptionslikelihood ratiochi-squaredtest power
🚀 You're jumping ahead. This builds on Backtesting: Keeping the Model Honest — but play it now and you'll still earn full XP. If it feels steep, those make a gentler on-ramp.

A short lesson, then a quiz. ❤️×3 — a wrong answer costs a heart; finish with at least one left and the level is yours. Lose all three and you'll have to try again. Replay any time — XP and cleared levels are never lost.