Base Rate Fallacy
Also called: base rate neglect, ignoring priors
The base rate fallacy is ignoring how common something is in general when judging a specific case. A vivid story about a startup founder overwhelms the fact that most startups fail. It's the everyday failure Bayes' theorem corrects, and the discipline that fixes it is asking the outside-view question first: of all cases like this one, what fraction ended well?
Where this is taught
Definitions are the trailer. These free levels turn Base Rate Fallacy into something you play — one bite-size lesson, with worked examples, a quiz and XP.